As the global economy navigates through Q4 2024, the focus remains on identifying the neutral rate of interest amidst shifting monetary policies. The resilience shown by labor markets, especially in service sectors, will be crucial for sustaining economic momentum. However, the complexities introduced by long and variable lags in policy responses, alongside the uncertain paths of major economies, underscore the need for vigilance in monitoring macroeconomic developments.
Forecast Summary:
Global GDP Growth: 3.2% in 2024; 3.1% in 2025.
U.S. GDP Growth: Slowing to below-trend levels; potential for increased unemployment.
Eurozone Growth: Recovery led by consumer spending; inflationary pressures persist.
China: Sluggish growth due to property market issues; cautious policy stance anticipated.
Emerging Markets: Supported by U.S. rate cuts but facing policy-related uncertainties.
Investors should remain attuned to these developments as they navigate a complex economic environment marked by both opportunities and risks. ...
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