Donald Trump and Joe Biden in front of US flag (photomontage). The United States 2020 presidential election is scheduled for November 3, 2020. Photo: AFP
Today 3 Nov. 2020 seems to be a vary critical day for the global community in terms of economy and politics.
We need just one day to understand the logic of voters in USA. It’s not clear what will happen untill today. Depending on statistics and estmiations Joe Baiden is leading the electoral votes. Surprisingly Obama (former president) has been very active since last week and that will make big positive effects in the results.
According to official reports from project fivethirtyeight.com
Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
- According to the final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. (TL;DR there’s no clear Plan B for Biden.) Want to run through your own hypothetical scenarios? You now can with our interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each candidate could win. We’re hoping to use this tool ourselves on election night to better understand Biden and Trump’s paths to victory, especially if the outstanding vote takes a while to be counted.
- Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night on Nov. 3, it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. We’re tracking when we expect results in every state.
However winning of any party won’t lead a major change at least for the next year, countries are struggling with deadly virus – Covid-19 – and will not have enough reserve for making any big steps toward.
The financial markets will be the main places for taking the affects and that won’t last more than few days to have normal state.
Homasa team of consultants are visioning the global politic and economic incidents in order to make deep analytics for its clients and their stratgies.
